Simulating Your First 25 Trades: What to Expect After Launch
The pool is created. The founder buy is done. Now what? We used the Token Launch Simulator’s Monte Carlo engine to simulate 25 random transactions after a $25K launch (70/30 split, seed 42) across three participant profiles.
The Setup
Starting state after founder buy:
- Pool: ~$25,000 USD side, ~700M tokens
- Starting MCap: $35,714
- Seed: 42 (deterministic: same seed always produces the same sequence)
Three participant profiles:
- Small: 0.1-0.5% of pool per trade
- Medium: 0.5-2.0% of pool per trade
- Large: 2.0-5.0% of pool per trade
The Results
| Profile | Buys | Sells | Final MCap | MCap Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small (0.1-0.5%) | ~23 | ~2 | $40,661 | +13.8% |
| Medium (0.5-2%) | 23 | 2 | $61,175 | +71.3% |
| Large (2-5%) | ~23 | ~2 | $158,761 | +344.6% |
The same 25-transaction sequence with the same random seed produces wildly different outcomes depending on participant size.
What the First 5 Trades Look Like (Medium)
| Tx | Type | Tokens | Value | MCap After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUY | 9,675,966 | $350 | $36,722 |
| 2 | BUY | 7,999,814 | $297 | $37,589 |
| 3 | BUY | 11,924,393 | $456 | $38,938 |
| 4 | BUY | … | … | … |
| … | ||||
| 25 | n/a | n/a | n/a | $61,175 |
With medium participants, each trade is in the $200-$500 range. The market cap climbs steadily from $35,714 to $61,175 (a 71% increase, driven primarily by buy pressure: 23 buys vs 2 sells in this seed).
Key Observations
1. Buy Bias Is Built In
The simulator generates roughly 87.5% buys and 12.5% sells (the sell probability is 12.5% after the first 3 buys). This buy-heavy distribution models the typical post-launch scenario where initial interest creates net buying pressure. With seed 42, we see 23 buys and 2 sells across all participant sizes.
2. Participant Size Creates Exponential Divergence
Small participants barely move the price: each trade is 0.1-0.5% of the pool, so price impact per transaction is minimal. After 25 trades, the MCap is up 13.8%.
Large participants move the price dramatically. Each buy is 2-5% of the pool, creating significant impact per trade. The same 25-trade sequence pushes MCap up 344.6%.
This isn’t just “bigger trades = bigger numbers.” It’s compounding: each large buy pushes the price higher, which means the next large buy starts from a higher base. The effect is multiplicative, not additive.
3. Seeds Matter
Seed 42 happens to produce a favorable sequence (23 buys, 2 sells). A different seed might produce 15 buys and 10 sells, resulting in a lower or even declining MCap. Running multiple seeds gives you the distribution of possible outcomes, not just one path.
The Token Launch Simulator uses a Mulberry32 seeded PRNG, which means the same seed always produces the same sequence. This makes scenarios reproducible and comparable.
What This Means for Founders
The simulation shows that post-launch liquidity matters differently depending on your participant base:
- If you expect small retail traders: Even a modest pool handles the volume without extreme volatility
- If you expect medium traders: Plan for 50-100% MCap swings in the first 25 trades
- If large traders are likely: Your pool needs to be deep enough to absorb 2-5% trades without the price spiraling beyond what feels organic
Run your own simulation: set up your pool in the Token Launch Simulator, then trigger the Monte Carlo simulation with different seeds and participant profiles to see the range of outcomes for your specific configuration.
All numbers in this article were generated by running the Token Launch Simulator's AMM engine with the specified parameters. No data was fabricated or estimated. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.